Russian missile overflights of NATO territory unlikely to provoke escalation - ISW

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) says it is unlikely that Russian missile overflights of the NATO territory will provoke an escalation, as Russian President Vladimir Putin does not want to risk a direct conflict with the alliance.

"Russian missile overflights of NATO territory are highly unlikely to prompt an escalation, and ISW continues to assess with high confidence that Russian President Vladimir Putin is unwilling to risk a direct conflict with NATO. Russian forces fired two cruise missiles from the Black Sea that reportedly crossed Romanian and Moldovan airspace before entering Ukrainian airspace. Russia’s ongoing campaign of missile strikes in support of its illegal invasion of Ukraine will continue to generate peripheral risks outside of Ukraine, such as these overflights or the risk of air defense incidents (as in Poland on November 15, 2022). However, ISW assesses that NATO (and individual member states) are in full control over its responses and the degree to which it chooses to escalate in response to accidental or intentional Russian overflights or other provocations. ISW also continues to assess with high confidence that Putin does not seek a war with NATO and is unlikely to directly risk an escalation," the report on its website states.

"Russian forces launched another massive series of missile and drone strikes across Ukraine on February 10. Ukrainian military sources reported that Russian forces launched over 100 missiles against critical and civil infrastructure throughout Ukraine. Russian claims of the scale and effectiveness of the strikes are overblown in comparison to official Ukrainian statements, and Russian forces continue to expend already limited stocks of precision munitions on such strikes," it says.

"Russian forces continued offensive operations northwest of Svatove and around Kreminna. They continued offensive operations in the Bakhmut and Avdiyivka-Donetsk city areas as well as in western Donetsk region. Russian forces reportedly conducted a limited ground attack in Zaporizhia region," ISW says.

"Russian authorities are likely placing restrictions on movement in and out of Russia to support crypto-mobilization efforts. Russian officials and occupation authorities are intensifying measures to integrate children in occupied territories using government-funded civic organizations," the report says.