NBU keeps GDP growth forecast for 2018-2020 unchanged

The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has left unchanged its expectations regarding growth of the Ukrainian economy in 2018-2020.

According to a posting on the website of the central bank, GDP growth forecast for 2018 was retained at 3.4%, for 2019 – 2.5% and 2020 – 2.9%.

The NBU said that the key driver of the economy this year will be household consumption thanks to further increase in public income. Investment activity of companies remains intensive.

In 2019, real GDP growth will slow to 2.5% due to the cooling of the global economy, worsening of the price situation on global commodity markets, restrained fiscal policy due to the need to repay significant amounts of public debt, as well as tight monetary policies required to return inflation to the target.

Then, in 2020, the growth of the Ukrainian economy will accelerate to 2.9%. This will be facilitated mainly by a gradual easing of monetary policy, which will become possible in the conditions of stabilizing inflation at a level close to the goal, and improving the investment attractiveness of the economy.

As reported, the World Bank early October worsened the forecast for Ukraine's GDP growth in 2018 to 3.3% from 3.5%, in 2019 - to 3.5% from 4%.

A week later, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) improved Ukraine's GDP growth forecast by the end of 2018 to 3.5% from 3.2%. At the same time, the forecast for 2019 was worsened to 2.7% from 3.3% and for 2020 - to 3.4% from 4%.

According to the consensus forecast compiled by the Economic Development and Trade Ministry in September, Ukraine's GDP growth in 2018 is estimated at 3.1%, in 2019 - 3%.

The bill on the national budget of Ukraine for 2019" is based on the forecast of 3% economic growth next year.